Alliance, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

137
FXUS65 KCYS 260522
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1122 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near record high temperatures are expected to begin Saturday
  and continue through Monday.

- Widely scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms with
  potential for strong gusty winds are expected Saturday and
  Sunday.

- Another surge of monsoon moisture will arrive Monday,
  increasing rainfall chances for the early part of the work
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 323 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

A hot day continue across much of the forecast area with high
temperatures east of the Laramie Range skyrocketing above 100
degrees. A Heat Advisory remains in place through Monday evening for
this area as little relief can be expected over the several days.
Northern Sioux and Dawes Counties will be the hottest locations,
with temperatures nearing 110 degrees. Due to this, these counties
are under an Extreme Heat Warning. Some locations have been lucky
enough to see a brief reprieve from the heat this afternoon.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed early this
afternoon and continue to pop up across the CWA. Some cloud cover
and rain has cause some locations to see a 5 to 10 degree drop in
temperatures. Hi-Res guidance shows these showers and storms
continuing well into the evening hours thanks to a subtle
shortwave passing through the ridge in place. Cannot rule out an
isolated severe storm or two across the High Plains this
afternoon and evening. The primary concern would be severe wind
gusts. Model soundings show strong inverted-V profiles thanks to
the dry surface from hot temperatures and ample moisture in the
mid-levels from the influence of the monsoon. This creates an
environment with DCAPE values over 1500 J/kg, which could lead
to severe wind gusts. Small hail will also be possible in
storms, but is not the primary concern. PWATs are also 1.00+
inch meaning heavy rain will be possible in storms. Storms are
also pretty slow moving, but flooding will likely not be an
issue with these high based storms. Heading into the overnight
hours, most storm activity will be done by midnight, but a few
lingering showers could be possible after that. Temperatures
overnight will be abnormally warm, with a few locations likely
to set record high low temperatures. This will not provide much
relief from the heat as it allows temperatures to warm up
quicker on Sunday.

Sunday will be virtually the same as Saturday, with continued hot
temperatures and the chance for scattered showers and storms.
Temperatures will have the potential to be a degree or two warmer
due to decreased cloud cover. In turn, coverage of precipitation
will likely be lower than Saturday due to a weaker disturbance
moving through the ridge. Hi-Res guidance keeps most of the shower
and storm activity around the Interstate 80 corridor. Timing of
storms will be similar to today with convection developing early in
the afternoon and continuing into the evening hours. Storms may go
past midnight as Hi-Res guidance shows convection maintaining well
into the overnight hours. Like today, wind and moderate to heavy
rain will be the main concern in storms with the dry low-levels and
monsoon in place.

As the ridge aloft ever so slightly weakens on Monday, temperatures
will begin to "cool". High temperatures on Monday will fall about 5
degrees compared to Sunday. A stronger shortwave moving through the
ridge will likely lead to increased cloud cover as well as
additional chances for showers and storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 323 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon look to be our best chances for
rainfall. The ensembles are still in fairly decent agreement of
higher PW values for our rainfall chances Tuesday and Wednesday.
Temperatures are looking to remain quite warm in the lower
elevations, with near seasonal temperatures for the higher
elevations. This moisture does bring chances for marginal severe
storms throughout the week, where a few gusts around 60mph cannot be
ruled out. As the week progresses the ridge starts to weaken. This
will decrease the amount of moisture trapped underneath it. PW
values decrease as the week progresses as well, which lowers the
chances for thunderstorms and showers each day.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Sat Jul 25 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals through the
overnight hours and into Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms will
redevelop after about 20Z Sunday and have the best chances on
impacting KLAR and KCYS. Hence the PROB30 groups for those two
sites. Thereafter, progressing into the afternoon hours, these
storms will move into the Nebraska Panhandle. Due to low confidence
on impacts to a specific terminal, for this TAF forecast, kept any
mention of activity out for now. For the 12Z TAFs, activity may have
to be introduced for KBFF and KAIA, at least. Outside of any shower
or thunderstorm, winds will generally pose no aviation threat. But,
expect gusty and erratic winds in any storms if one were to come
near or go over a terminal.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Monday for WYZ101-102-107-108-118-
     119.
NE...Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM MDT Monday for NEZ002-095.
     Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Monday for NEZ003-019>021-054-055-
     096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...ML
AVIATION...RZ